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The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank look poised to make "major progress" in cutting interest rates this year, according to the central bank of central banks. BIS serves as a bank and forum for national central banks, and as such has close understanding of their monetary policies. During its March meeting, the ECB held interest rates steady, but hinted at a June rate cut as it trimmed its annual inflation forecast. The Fed and the Bank of England are expected to shine future light on their plans for interest rates during their monetary policy meetings this week. The Bank of Japan is meanwhile predicted to lift interest rates on Tuesday, according to a Reuters poll, marking a major turn in its nearly two-decade-long cycle of negative interest rates.
Persons: Carstens, Annette Weisbach, disinflation, Philip Lane, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, BoE Organizations: Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank for International, CNBC, BIS, ECB, Bank of England, Goldman, Bank of Japan
European markets were poised to open slightly lower on Friday as investors digested U.S. inflation data that dented confidence in the outlook for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. U.S. inflation data is being closely monitored on Wall Street ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting next Tuesday. The central bank is widely expected to hold its benchmark interest rate next week, although market participants will be searching for clues about when and by how much the Fed could start cutting interest rates over the coming months. Asia-Pacific markets fell on Friday, led lower by Hong Kong's Hang Seng index. U.S. stock futures edged lower in overnight trading as investors sought to look beyond the latest inflation reading.
Persons: Philip Lane, Kong's Organizations: Federal Reserve, Federal, European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB Locations: U.S, Asia, Pacific
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB has a 'fairly stable view' that inflation is on its way to 2%: Central bank's chief economistPhilip Lane, chief economist of the European Central Bank, discusses the path ahead for interest rates, saying the central bank needs to take its time to get rate cuts right.
Persons: Philip Lane Organizations: ECB, Central bank's, European Central Bank
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailWatch's CNBC's full interview with ECB Chief Economist Philip LanePhilip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, discusses the outlook for central bank monetary policy, especially interest rates.
Persons: Philip Lane Philip Lane Organizations: ECB
The European Central Bank must take its time to get interest rate cuts right and will have a clearer picture of inflationary pressures in June, the institution's chief economist told CNBC. Lane, also a Governing Council member, said the euro zone central bank's March meeting had been an "important milestone" in the accumulation of evidence, and showed the "disinflation process has been ongoing." During the meeting, the ECB held rates and released updated macroeconomic projections, which lowered its inflation forecast for this year to 2.3% from 2.7%. Inflation in the 20-nation bloc eased to 2.6% in February. In a press conference following the March meeting, ECB President Christine Lagarde said market pricing on the timing of rate cuts — which indicate a start in June as of Thursday — "seems to be converging better" with the central bank's view.
Persons: what's, we've, Philip Lane, Steve Sedgwick, Lane, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, CNBC, ECB
She said her "demand-driven" approach fitted the euro zone, whose 20 countries vary in economic strength and have separate banking systems. "A demand-driven system is well-suited for a heterogeneous currency union that may be prone to fragmentation," Schnabel said in an interview. "Such a system also likely limits the size of the central bank balance sheet." She conceded, however, that "it could make sense to have a mix of different tools", suggesting policymakers may be looking for a compromise in this complex yet crucial debate for the euro zone financial system. Loans to banks or a structural bond portfolio would come on top of this.
Persons: Isabel Schnabel, Ralph Orlowski, Schnabel, Philip Lane, Schnabel's counterargument, Francesco Canepa, Catherine Evans Organizations: Frankfurt, Banking Congress, Old Opera, REUTERS, European Central Bank, ECB, Reuters, Federal Reserve, Bank of England, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, FRANKFURT
Morning Bid: Treasuries gobbled up, oil braces for OPEC
  + stars: | 2023-11-28 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., November 17, 2023. Benchmark Treasury yields fell back more than 10 basis points to 4.37% after a total of $109 billion of 2 and 5-year notes hit the Street on Monday without much disruption. Another weak U.S. housing readout, with sub-forecast new home sales last month, perhaps flattered the post-auction moves. That's likely a mixed blessing for Federal Reserve watchers - the continued buoyancy of consumption but with increasing price discrimination. Fed futures priced about 85bps of rate cuts through next year, starting in June, though many major banks expect even more.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Mike Dolan, That's, Hong, Louis, Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, Michael Barr, Austan Goolsbee, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Dave Ramsden, BoE, Jonathan Haskel, Hewlett Packard, Ed Osmond Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, Treasuries, Treasury, Adobe Digital, Federal Reserve, Louis Fed, U.S . Treasury, Richmond Fed, Dallas Fed, . Treasury, Chicago Fed, European Central Bank, ECB, Bank of England, Citi Trends, Fluence Energy, Reuters, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Asia, Europe, United States, China, New York, St, Uxin, Canaan, Elbit
Deep structural problems mean Europe is bound to trail most other big economic areas for years to come. The labour market remains tight and the world economy is rebounding, so external demand is also likely to be healthier. Fearing it will be difficult to hire in future, firms are now hanging onto workers, creating even more labour market tightness, potentially fuelling wage growth and weakening productivity. The potential growth rate for Europe's largest economy is now below 1%. European Union governments are meanwhile struggling to reach consensus on bigger questions that will help shape the future.
Persons: Philip Lane, Erik Nielsen, Eric Gaillard, Europe's, There's, Lane, Reinhard Cluse, Mark John, Catherine Evans Organizations: Central Bank's, REUTERS, European Commission, UBS, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, Europe, Nice, France, United States, Germany
Euro zone inflation could tick up in coming months: Lagarde
  + stars: | 2023-11-10 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
FRANKFURT, Nov 10 (Reuters) - Euro zone inflation could tick up in the coming months but European Central Bank interest rates held at their current level at least for several quarters could still get price growth back to 2%, ECB President Christine Lagarde said on Friday. "There will be a resurgence of probably higher numbers going forwards and we should be expecting that," Lagarde told a Financial Times event. Still, Lagarde hinted that even if inflation picks up, another rate hike may not be needed. When asked what long enough means, Lagarde said no change should be expected in the "next couple of quarters". Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; editing by Christina Fincher, Tomasz Janowski and David EvansOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Lagarde, Francois Villeroy de Galhau, Philip Lane, Balazs Koranyi, Christina Fincher, Tomasz Janowski, David Evans Organizations: Central Bank, ECB, Financial, European Union, Thomson Locations: FRANKFURT, French
Morning Bid: Range-bound markets awaits Powell - again
  + stars: | 2023-11-09 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question during a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. At a separate event on Wednesday, European Central Bank chief economist Philip Lane said his bank needs to see further progress in dampening inflationary pressure, and companies along with governments need to chip in to prevent more policy tightening. "A decrease in the policy rate is not something that is likely to happen in the short term," he said. The approval paves the way for a powerful rival to blockbuster drug Wegovy in addressing record obesity rates. Ping An subsequently said in a statement to Reuters it had "not been asked by (the) Government to take over Country Garden".
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Ankur Banerjee, Powell, Philip Lane, Patrick Harker, Huw Pill, Eli Lilly's, Ping, Merck KGaA, BOE, Christopher Cushing Organizations: Federal, Committee, REUTERS, Ankur, U.S, European Central Bank, . Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, Bank of England, Investors, Novo Nordisk, Reuters, Ping An Insurance, Government, HK, AstraZeneca, Merck, Deutsche Telekom Speakers, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Guangdong, Ping, Singapore
Morning Bid: Waiting for word from the Fed chief
  + stars: | 2023-11-08 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. Last week's surprisingly soft jobs data heightened expectations that interest rates had peaked, but Fed commentary since then has warned against complacency in the fight against inflation. For now, investors have dialled up wagers on near-term rate cuts, with the Fed funds rate showing better than 50/50 odds for one as early as May. In Asia time, long-term Treasury yields are stuck around 4.58% and the dollar is biding its time around $1.07 per euro. While the Fed outlook dominates investors' attention, there is plenty of central bank speak in store from Europe as well.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Kevin Buckland, Jay Powell, Christine Lagarde, Philip Lane, Joachim Nagel, Pablo Hernandez de Cos, Andrew Bailey, Fed's Powell, Lagarde, BoE's Bailey, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Kevin, Kevin Buckland Markets, Reuters Graphics, Bank of Spain, Bank of England, Adidas, Airbus, Bayer, Continental, Credit Agricole, Federal Reserve Division of Research, Statistics, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Asia, Europe, Germany, Brussels, Irish
People walk outside the Bank of England in the City of London financial district, in London, Britain, January 26, 2023. The 10-year yield on U.K. government bonds, known as gilts, was 13 basis points lower at 4.366% at 3:20 p.m. in London following the Bank of England announcement at midday. The 2-year yield, a reflection of interest rate expectations, was down 8 basis points at 4.711%. Elsewhere in Europe, bond yields have also been sliding. German 10-year bond yields fell following the Fed decision and were around 5 basis points lower on Thursday, while Italy's 10-year yield was down 9 basis points.
Persons: Henry Nicholls, , Philip Lane, Jerome Powell's, Steve Englander Organizations: Bank of England, Reuters, Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Research, Standard Chartered, Treasury Locations: City, London, Britain, Europe, North America, U.S
Morning Bid: Markets cheer as Powell finds his balance
  + stars: | 2023-11-02 | by ( Wayne Cole | ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell answers a question at a press conference following a closed two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on interest rate policy at the Federal Reserve in Washington, U.S., November 1, 2023. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque Acquire Licensing RightsNov 2 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Wayne Cole. It's been a day for relief rallies in Asia as investors became increasingly confident the next move in U.S. interest rates will be down, not up. While Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell maintained the option of another hike, he sounded less than committed to the idea. The dovish mood proved infectious as investors pared back rate risks across much of the developed world.
Persons: Jerome Powell, Kevin Lamarque, Wayne Cole, It's, presser, Powell, EURIBOR, Edouard Fernandez, Isabel Schnabel, Philip Lane, Sam Holmes Organizations: Federal, Committee, Federal Reserve, REUTERS, Treasury, The Bank of, U.S, Bank of England, Norges Bank, Thomson Locations: Washington , U.S, Wayne, Asia, The Bank of England, China
ECB chief Christine Lagarde may stick with the high-for-longer mantra that has pushed up long-dated bond yields. A weakening economy meanwhile suggests the need for further tightening is limited but the ECB is likely to push back against rate-cut speculation. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the ECB will need time, possibly until next spring, before it can be confident that inflation is coming down. The ECB expects headline inflation to ease to 3.2% in 2024 from an average of 5.6% in 2023. Oil price moves, inflation outlook shifts4/ What does the ECB do if things go wrong with Italy?
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Johanna Geron, Francis Yared, Philip Lane, Lagarde, PEPP, Reinhard Cluse, Chris Jeffrey, Cluse, ING's Brzeski, Dhara Ranasinghe, Stefano Rebaudo, Naomi Rovnick, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, Parliament's, Economic, Monetary Affairs, REUTERS, ECB, Deutsche Bank, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Reuters, Legal, General Investment Management, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Brussels, Belgium, Europe, United States, Italy, Germany
Take Five: Another curve ball for markets
  + stars: | 2023-10-20 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +5 min
The European Central Bank looks set to sit tight after a string of interest rate hikes, while there's a slew of U.S. earnings and Argentina's presidential election. ECB chief economist Philip Lane says the central bank was still "quite some distance" from easing monetary policy. Canada's central bank, meeting on Wednesday, is tipped to leave rates steady as inflation eases. 2 economy, property turmoil threatens China's 5% growth target - even after a consensus-smashing 4.9% quarterly expansion. Milei, surprise victor in the August primary election, has pledged to dollarise the economy and get rid of the central bank.
Persons: Brendan McDermid, Amanda Cooper, Naomi Rovnick, Kevin Buckland, Lewis Krauskopf, Rodrigo Campos, Philip Lane, hasn't, Javier Milei, Sergio Massa, Patricia Bullrich, Vineet Sachdev, Sumanta Sen, Dhara Ranasinghe, Simon Cameron, Moore Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, European Central Bank, Hamas, ECB, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, General Motors, Merck, United Parcel Service, Investors, International Monetary, Massa, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, London, Tokyo, New York, Israel, Palestinian, Russia, Ukraine, China, Beijing, ARGENTINA, Argentina, Pasir Kongkunakornkul
Morning Bid: Treasury yields march on
  + stars: | 2023-09-26 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +2 min
Long-term Treasury yields, traditionally subdued in Asian hours, spiked to a fresh 16-year peak , keeping the dollar close to multi-month tops to G-3 rivals the euro, pound sterling and yen. Reuters GraphicsAngst over tighter financial conditions pulled down Asia Pacific stocks as well, overshadowing Wall Street's overnight rally and sounding a warning for European equities. Investor jitters were evident in the underperformance of the Hang Seng's property index (.HSMPI), down a resounding 1.9%. Moody's has upped the stakes with a stern warning that potentially puts the country's last triple-A rating on the line. It comes as the U.S. budget deficit continues to widen on higher spending and falling tax receipts.
Persons: Jonathan Ernst, Kevin Buckland, Hong, Moody's, Philip Lane, Riksbank's Per Jansson, Jacqueline Wong Organizations: . Federal, REUTERS, Reuters, Asia, Japan's Nikkei, fester, Bloomberg, U.S, Treasury, Thomson Locations: Washington, Asia Pacific
European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde speaks to the media following the Governing Council's monetary policy meeting at the ECB headquarters in Frankfurt, Germany, July 27, 2023. "It's such a close call between the pause and the rate hike," said ING's global head of macro Carsten Brzeski. Traders are torn but favour an ECB pause, pricing in around a 40% chance of a hike. For many economists, one thing is clear: if the ECB has further tightening to deliver, September is likely its last chance. Even the hawks, keeping a hike on the table, say fresh ECB projections on Thursday are key to the decision.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Kai Pfaffenbach, Reinhard Cluse, Mario Centeno, Isabel Schnabel, Austria's Robert Holzmann, Iain Stealey, Philip Lane, Kaspar Hense, Yoruk Bahceli, Stefano Rebaudo, Dhara Ranasinghe, Susan Fenton Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, REUTERS, Central Bank, Traders, UBS, JPMorgan Asset Management, Reuters, ING, BlueBay Asset Management, Reuters Graphics Reuters, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Italy
Morning Bid: Asia mood lifts as China's small steps add up
  + stars: | 2023-09-04 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
The German share price index DAX graph is pictured at the stock exchange in Frankfurt, Germany, August 24, 2023. There was also much relief at Country Garden's deal with creditors for an extension on onshore debt payments worth 3.9 billion yuan ($537 million). As a result, Chinese blue chips are up another 1.2% on top of last week's 2.2% rally. Companies are holding an astonishing 555 trillion yen ($3.80 trillion) of earnings in reserve, which is more than the entire 447 trillion market capitalisation of the Topix. The market also foresees 107 basis points of easing next year, up from around 90 basis points early last week.
Persons: Wayne Cole, Treasuries, Cash, Christine Lagarde, Frank Elderson, Philip Lane, Fabio Panetta, Edmund Klamann Organizations: REUTERS, Staff, Nasdaq, Fed, Washington Post, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Germany, Wayne, China
"It may just be lucky that a global demand slump or non-policy related domestic forces are driving inflation lower." This disconnect led the German central bank to issue a warning to peers this week that a tough task may still lie ahead for policymakers. "The impression took hold that inflation rates will nonetheless persist for longer above the rates targeted by central banks," the Bundesbank said. Indeed, longer-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and the euro zone remain above the banks' 2% targets. But even in the best case, weaker growth will reduce demand for imports and complicate the global outlook.
Persons: JACKSON, Steve Englander, Piet Haines Christiansen, Philip Lane, Lane, Niels Graham, Julian Evans, Pritchard, Balazs Koranyi, Dan Burns, Toby Chopra Organizations: Standard Chartered, The Bank of England, ECB, Reserve Bank of Australia, Reserve Bank of New, Danske Bank, U.S, People's Bank of, Atlantic Council, Capital Economic, Thomson Locations: , Wyoming, Jackson Hole , Wyoming, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, German, Europe, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, Jackson, People's Bank of China, China
Morning Bid: China sets sombre tone with property turmoil
  + stars: | 2023-08-18 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +3 min
REUTERS/Staff/File Photo Acquire Licensing RightsA look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Kevin BucklandChina continues to set the mood for markets, and the tone is unswervingly sombre. Such hopes may have bolstered Chinese property shares in the Asian morning, but the wider markets in China and the rest of the region were gloomy. The Hang Seng Index sank about 0.7%, with mainland Chinese, Japanese and South Korean shares all also down. The People's Bank of China was signalling its intent to shore up the yuan again today, setting the official mid-point a whopping 1,000 pips stronger than the Reuters estimate. And with U.S. benchmark yields heading for pre-financial crisis highs, the yield gap between the two economies is yawning.
Persons: Kevin Buckland China, China Evergrande, Will, Philip Lane, Kevin Buckland, Edmund Klamann Organizations: Silicon Valley Bank, Credit Suisse, REUTERS, Staff, South, People's Bank of, Fed, Bank of England, ECB, Thomson Locations: Frankfurt, Silicon, Germany, China, U.S, People's Bank of China, Will China, Japan, Tokyo, Europe, Asia
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty ImagesThe U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and European Central Bank will all announce key interest rate decisions this week, with each potentially nearing a pivotal moment in their monetary policy trajectory. The Fed Each central bank faces a very different challenge. "The FOMC will, however, maintain a tight monetary policy stance to aid continued softening in demand and consequently, inflation." Several analysts over the past week have suggested that policymakers will remain "data dependent," but push back against any talk of interest rate cuts in the near future. ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane last month warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years.
Persons: Goldman Sachs, Michael Cahill, Cahill, Steve Englander, Englander, Philip Lane, Paul Hollingsworth, Christine Lagarde, Hollingsworth Organizations: Bank of Japan, U.S, Bloomberg, Getty, . Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, ECB, Federal, Moody's Investors Service, Standard Chartered, Downside, Fed, BNP, Bank of Locations: U.S, North America, Bank of Japan, Japan
Euro zone interest rates have risen 400 basis points in the last year to 3.5%, their highest in 22 years, and are now close to peaking as headline inflation cools and the economy weakens. 1/ How much will the ECB hike rates? "The ECB will hike again and anything else would be a major surprise," said RBC Capital Markets global macro strategist Peter Schaffrik. Reuters Graphics Reuters Graphics3/ When does the ECB expect core inflation to fall? Euro zone business activity stalled in June as a manufacturing recession deepened and a previously resilient services sector barely grew.
Persons: Silvia Ardagna, Peter Schaffrik, Christine, Lagarde, Massimiliano Maxia, Reinhard Cluse, Ruben Segura, BofA, Philip Lane, BofA's Segura, Naomi Rovnick, Stefano Rebaudo, Vincent Flasseur, Sumanta Sen, Pasit, Kripa Jayaram, Catherine Evans Organizations: European Central Bank, Barclays, ECB, Capital, Reuters, Allianz Global Investors, U.S . Federal, Reuters Graphics Reuters, UBS, Bank, Thomson Locations: Cayuela, Europe, London, Milan
European stocks were cautiously higher Thursday as investors assessed commentary from leading central bankers on the need to continue the fight against inflation. The pan-European Stoxx 600 nudged 0.3% higher by late morning, with retail stocks adding 1.7% to lead gains while travel and leisure stocks fell 0.4%. A further message from the conference this week has been on market pricing of swift interest rate cuts from the ECB. The Stoxx 600 closed 0.7% higher Wednesday after staging a cautious turnaround from six straight negative sessions on Tuesday. U.S. futures were slightly higher as banks rose after passing the Federal Reserve's annual stress test.
Persons: Christine Lagarde, Andrew Bailey, Jerome Powell, Powell, Lagarde, England's Bailey, Philip Lane, Chipmakers Organizations: CNBC, European Central Bank, Wednesday, Bank of England, Federal, ECB, Journal Locations: Sintra , Portugal, U.S, China, Asia, Pacific
European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane on Tuesday warned markets against pricing in cuts to interest rates within the next two years. Earlier this month, the ECB hiked its main rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%, making the latest in a series of increases since July 2022, as policymakers strive to reel in record-high inflation in the euro zone. Headline inflation across the bloc came in at an annual 6.1% in May, down from 7% the previous month. "Where I do think the market should ask itself questions is about the timing or the speed of reversal of restrictive policy," Lane said. His comments echoed those of ECB President Christine Lagarde, who said in a keynote address Tuesday that the central bank had made "significant progress" but "cannot declare victory yet."
Persons: Philip Lane, CNBC's Annette Weisbach, Lane, it's, Christine Lagarde Organizations: European Central Bank, ECB, Central Bank of Ireland Locations: Sintra, Portugal
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailECB chief economist: It will take years for ECB to reach inflation targetPhilip Lane, chief economist at the ECB, discusses his economic outlook for inflation in Europe.
Persons: Philip Lane Organizations: ECB Locations: Europe
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